Bird flu in Turkey

[altyfc]

There's been some recent cases in Turkey. Should we in Europe be worried about this?

Aaron

[Sunny Gardens®]

Avian influenza A (H5N1) in Asia and Europe
Influenza A (H5N1) virus – also called “H5N1 virus” – is an influenza A virus subtype that occurs mainly in birds, is highly contagious among birds, and can be deadly to them.

Outbreaks of avian influenza H5N1 occurred among poultry in eight countries in Asia (Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam) during late 2003 and early 2004. At that time, more than 100 million birds in the affected countries either died from the disease or were killed in order to try to control the outbreaks. By March 2004, the outbreak was reported to be under control. Since late June 2004, however, new outbreaks of influenza H5N1 among poultry were reported by several countries in Asia (Cambodia, China [Tibet], Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Russia [Siberia], Thailand, and Vietnam). It is believed that these outbreaks are ongoing. Influenza H5N1 infection also has been reported among poultry in Turkey Romania, and Ukraine. Outbreaks of influenza H5N1 have been reported among wild migratory birds in China, Croatia, Mongolia, and Romania.

Human cases of influenza A (H5N1) infection have been reported in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. For the most current information about avian influenza and cumulative case numbers, see the World Health Organization (WHO) website at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/.

(Source: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm)

[altyfc]

I'm still not sure from that whether it's something we should worry about.

Aaron

[smartie]

It is something that we must brace ourselves for, if, as expected, it mutates into a strain that can pass from human to human, people will have no immunity at all to it. Even though the seasonal flu changes from year to year, there is enough in common that people have built up some immunity. When there is no immunity, the flu probably would pass rapidly from person to person. At the point when the mutation occurs to enable human to human transmission then there will be an EXPLOSION of cases.

How many would become ill or die in a pandemic?

No one knows, but experts make projections based on the 1918-19 pandemic – that sickened up to 1 billion people and killed up to 100 million worldwide – because today’s bird flu virus is similar to the 1918 variety. Projections show a 1918-type pandemic would infect 30 percent to 60 percent of the world’s population, killing up to 360 million around the world.


Phil

[Sunny Gardens®]

There is hope:

Viragen Reports Results from Preliminary Avian Flu Studies
-Initial In Vitro Results Show Multiferon® to be Effective Against Virus; Further Studies Needed

PLANTATION, FLORIDA – November 18, 2005 – Viragen, Inc. (AMEX: “VRA”) and Viragen International, Inc. (OTC BB: “VGNI”) today announced that  preliminary in vitro studies conducted by a U.S. research organization have found Multiferon® (multi-subtype, human natural alpha interferon) to show significant anti-viral activity against the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza virus.  These early stage studies found Multiferon® to be significantly more active against the virus than recombinant alpha interferon, recombinant beta interferon or ribavirin.  Viragen officials believe these results suggest that Multiferon® may have utility against this viral threat and is a prime candidate worthy of further evaluation in additional avian influenza studies.

The studies were conducted by Birmingham, Ala.-based Southern Research Institute, an independent, not-for-profit center for scientific research.  In the evaluations, Southern Research scientists exposed a standard cell line to a range of concentrations of Multiferon®, recombinant alpha interferon, recombinant beta interferon and ribavirin, all of which were then separately exposed to the H5N1 avian influenza virus.  It was found that not only was Multiferon®  highly active against the virus, being able to protect the cells against viral infection, but furthermore, it was found to be far more active than the other three products tested.  Multiferon® showed potent anti-viral efficacy at low concentrations and was non-toxic to the cells.

While these studies represent only a preliminary evaluation, and success in the in vivo or clinical stages cannot be guaranteed, the data suggests that Multiferon® may have immuno-protective and anti-viral activity against this particular strain of virus, and furthermore, may be more effective than other anti-viral products, including recombinant alpha interferon.

The data obtained from these studies has been included to supplement Viragen’s patent application filed with the United Kingdom’s Patent Office in February 2004 covering the use of natural, multi-subtype alpha interferon for human treatment and prevention of avian influenza virus.

(See more information at http://www.viragen.com/pressreleases/2005/virpr11182005.htm)